Three statistics and what they tell us about the WSL
Manchester City's offsides, Aston Villa's tackling and Arsenal's shooting
There are few things I enjoy more than a perusal of Women’s Super League statistics on FBRef of an evening. Here I explore three that stuck out to me.
Manchester City have the fewest offsides
Manchester City have only had 15 offsides this season in the WSL. That is more than 30 less than league leaders Manchester United who have had 48.
With Lauren Hemp and Chloe Kelly on the wings, it is easy to imagine a team’s natural inclination might be to put quick balls out wide in order to generate space in behind for the duo.
But City value patient build-up when they play, as well as backing their players to take on more set defences in 1v1 situations.
They are right to do so. City lead the league when it comes to both successful take-ons (161) and attempted ones (304).
It is not Hemp or Kelly who have the most successful take-ons at City though. Instead it is Bunny Shaw. Shaw ranks fourth overall in the league with 28.
She regularly drops into space to pick up the ball, often with her back to goal, before turning and running at defences. This allows her to then lay off the ball to one of City’s wide options before continuing her run into the box.
City’s patience on the ball is clear when looking at their direct speed. Direct speed is a measure of how quickly a team progresses the ball up the pitch, and at 1.23 m/s City’s is the slowest in the league by quite a significant margin.
It is clearly not a bad approach given they are level on points with Chelsea at the top of the league. But recent losses to Chelsea in the Continental Cup semi-final and Tottenham in the FA Cup quarter-final have shown a need to occasionally mix it up.
Opposition presses are looking to block off Yui Hasegawa in midfield, leaving City’s centre-backs to try and progress the ball without Hasegawa’s help. Khiara Keating is often used to kick long - only Liverpool goalkeeper Racheal Laws attempts more ‘launched’ passes than Keating on a per 90 basis - but trying to get Hemp and Kelly running into space more often would force teams to adjust.
No team has picked up more points from losing positions than City this season. On three separate occasions they have come back from a goal down to win. Normally they predominantly rely on their original game plan coming good. But recent results suggest some more variety is needed.
Aston Villa make the fewest tackles
With only 250 tackles attempted and 161 won, Aston Villa make the fewest tackles in the league. Carla Ward’s side are currently in 8th having failed to build on their successful season last year.
These tackle numbers are consistent with last season’s with both versions of Villa averaging around 16 tackles per 90 and winning 11 of them. But last year, they made the fourth fewest tackles, with all three of Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City making less than them.
Rather than being a reflection on Villa, could this potentially be a reflection on the league as a whole? Measuring if the WSL is getting ‘closer’ always feels tricky. The oft-repeated statistic that a winner of the WSL has never lost more than two games in a single season could well end this year with all three of Chelsea, City and Arsenal having lost two or more matches. An increase in tackles from the best teams in the league suggests they are being put under more pressure and having to win the ball back.
For Villa, it should still be a mark of concern that they are making so few tackles, particularly in their defensive third given they are not one of the best teams in the league. It is notable that the two teams at the top of the table for tackles are Liverpool and Tottenham, two sides who have impressed this year.
Arsenal have the lowest percentage of their shots ending up on target
Arsenal’s shot on target % is currently the lowest in the WSL, sitting at 29.4%. This means that despite taking the second most shots in the league (282), they are only fifth when it comes to shots on target (83), behind Tottenham.
Clearly Arsenal have struggled in front of goal this season. This is not a chance generation issue per se. Their expected goals tally is the second highest in the league but they have underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the league.
Digging into the players themselves, it is Arsenal’s top scorer for the season Stina Blackstenius who is underperforming the most when it comes to xG (-1.7), although she is not starting for the Gunners. Russo (-1) and Mead (-0.3) are also underperforming but not hugely significantly.
What is intriguing is almost all of Arsenal’s attackers are having very poor seasons when it comes to shooting on target. Russo’s 27.9% is far below her career average of 36.3%, Mead is on 33.3% below an average of 40.1%, Foord is on 30.8% off 44%, and Blackstenius is on 24.1% off 39.5%.
It is hard to deduce exactly what is going on here. It could be a run of bad luck, but for it to extend across all the players makes it feel less plausible.
A technical explanation also feels unlikely given that it applies across all of them. Arsenal do have notable goalscorer Kelly Smith on their coaching staff and potentially she could be trying to develop their shooting technique which is causing an initial downturn as they adjust.
It could also be mentality. It is notable that of Arsenal’s six lowest shot on target % games they only won two - 3-0 against Brighton and the comeback victory against Aston Villa. In games where Arsenal were losing, it seems reasonable to think perhaps they are panicking and being less precise with their shots. But it also is somewhat circular - were their shots bad because they were losing or were they losing because their shots were bad?
With a short season, runs of luck do get exacerbated in the WSL. It was the case last year with Manchester City who finished the season with the highest xG in the league of 48 but only scored 47 goals. Only Leicester had a bigger underperformance.
But this season, the situation has flipped with City now the highest over-performing team in the league. This feels like the most realistic outcome for Arsenal too.