Can Chelsea hold on to win against Barcelona?

Chelsea go into the second-leg of their semi-final against Barcelona with a one-goal lead that no one expected them to have. Barcelona had not lost a home game in five years, and received wisdom going into the match was that Chelsea would have done well to still be in the tie by the end of the ninety minutes. Instead Erin Cuthbert’s 40th minute goal now gives the Blues a slender advantage.

The match itself was pretty even which probably should have been more anticipated given that Barcelona won 2-1 at this stage of the competition last year across two tight games. Over the past two seasons, Barcelona have recorded three of their four lowest expected goal totals in individual matches against Chelsea. Last weekend’s defensive performance was the best of the lot, with Chelsea only really allowing one good chance for Barcelona, which Alexia Putellas missed in the final moment of the match.

Chelsea will know then that they can defend against Barcelona but that is not the same as saying they should defend against them. In fact the most instructive game for Chelsea going into the second leg is probably not the games they played against Barcelona last year, but their quarter-final against Lyon.

As with this semi-final, Chelsea had got a 1-0 win in the first leg which was away. However, after missing some good early chances in the second leg, they ended up sat further and further back with Lyon scoring twice to make it seem almost certain that Chelsea would be knocked out. Only a last minute Maren Mjelde penalty, and subsequent penalty shoot out, kept Chelsea in the competition.

Barcelona are far more relentless in attack than Lyon as a team so that temptation to try and defend must be resisted by Emma Hayes and her team. Part of what made Chelsea so effective in the first leg was the structure of their press. Even though they were playing a back five, they focused on recovering the ball in midfield areas.

By still positioning their wing-backs relatively high up the pitch, they were able to progress the ball when they won it back, thus relieving pressure on the backline.

Hayes’ game plan worked to perfection so the key question this week will have been whether to stick with it or iterate. Chelsea had no midweek game this week, meaning there was plenty of time to evaluate what worked and what didn’t. 

“This is a game that is played in the head first and foremost,” Hayes said, speaking at her pre-match press conference.

“We know that we absolutely have to be perfect to progress.”

“We’ve had more build time, more prep time, more reflection, more analysis.”

Hayes played a back three in both of last year’s matches against Barcelona, and only made one change between the two legs - replacing Jelena Cankovic with Jessie Fleming. 

There are no obvious personnel tweaks to make here, although the return of Millie Bright and Nathalie Bjorn may well be tempting even if neither are realistically match fit. The biggest question mark might be whether Catarina Macario would get a nod to start over Lauren James, but James’ record at Stamford Bridge has been impeccable this season. Sometimes you want to rely on those little intangibles as much as the tactical big picture in games of this magnitude.

“It just feels like a longer half time,” continued Hayes. 

“Because that’s all it is. We are at the halfway stage of a game that’s minimum 180 minutes long.

“So we’ve made the adjustments for half time and we’re ready for the second half.

“That’s how I present it to the players and they know the cycle of how we work. We’re ready. We want to be in this position.”

It is still a unique position for Chelsea to be in. They have never been leading after the first leg of a Champions League semi-final before, having won one of the previous four they have participated in. They are far more used to attempting to overcome deficits, as opposed to kicking off in positions of strength. 

Equally Barcelona are not used to having to come from behind. The last time they lost the first leg of a two-legged knock-out tie in the Champions League, it was against Lyon in the 2017-18 quarter-final. They went on to lose 3-1 on aggregate having lost the first leg 2-1 at home. 

There is certainly something fairytale about the tie with Emma Hayes having one last shot at winning a Champions League final with Chelsea. But football rarely cares for fairytales and Chelsea will have to pull out a display as impressive as the one last week if they are to win on aggregate. It is telling that the bookies still have Barcelona as favourites to go through. But regardless, we should be set for a fascinating battle.